Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech could make or break the bitcoin and gold rally

Kevin Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole speech will likely shift market expectations about U.S. monetary policy and thus influence the rallies in Bitcoin and gold. If Warsh emphasizes continued Fed hawkishness and higher rates, rising real yields could reduce demand for inflation hedges and risk assets, pressuring Bitcoin. Conversely, a dovish or less-committal stance that eases rate-hike expectations would likely support further gains in both assets. The speech’s effect on rate and real-yield expectations is therefore the decisive factor for whether Bitcoin’s rally sustains or reverses.