Remember How Bitcoin Was Supposed to Rise With Money Supply? Here's Why That Didn't Happen

Bitcoin did not rally simply because headline money-supply measures rose; much of the extra liquidity sat in bank reserves or was absorbed elsewhere rather than flowing into crypto markets. Rising interest rates and higher real yields, plus monetary tightening, reduced speculative demand, while crypto-specific shocks and regulatory uncertainty pushed risk sentiment lower. As a result, Bitcoin has tracked liquidity conditions and risk-on/risk-off dynamics more closely than broad money aggregates. The implication is that investors should focus on real yields, central bank policy and crypto market plumbing—not M2 growth alone—when assessing Bitcoin's price drivers.