Fed Hike Odds Drop to 18%, Cuts at 0%: What a Hold Means for Bitcoin

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Markets assign an 18% chance to a Fed rate hike and no chance of a cut, making a hold the base case. A hold would leave monetary policy restrictive, limiting the prospect of a near-term liquidity boost for Bitcoin. The halving cycle may support Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook, but it does not remove the near-term macro headwind.

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