Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Research Says: 'Now Is an Attractive Time to Buy'

Mon, 26 Oct 2026 · price · Sentiment: bullish

Bitcoin’s bear market has concluded according to Galaxy Research, which states that current levels represent an attractive entry point for investors to buy and hold. The firm’s analysis, widely reported across multiple outlets, points to improving market structure, institutional adoption trends, and historical cycle patterns as evidence that the downturn is behind us. Despite a recent dip below $80,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve decision and U.S. midterms, the consensus view from Galaxy is that the risk-reward profile now favors accumulation. The key implication is that Bitcoin is transitioning into a new bullish phase, offering a strategic buying opportunity before the next leg higher.

Research

Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over: Galaxy Research Declares an Attractive Entry Point

Background and Context

In late 2024, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, briefly dipping below $80,000 amid macroeconomic uncertainty, including anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the U.S. midterm elections. Against this backdrop, Galaxy Research—the analytical arm of Galaxy Digital Holdings, a prominent crypto-focused investment firm founded by Mike Novogratz—released a report asserting that Bitcoin's bear market has concluded. The analysis, which quickly gained traction across outlets like CoinDesk, Bloomberg, and The Block, positions current price levels as a compelling buying opportunity for long-term investors.

The report draws on multiple pillars: improving on-chain market structure, accelerating institutional adoption, and alignment with historical Bitcoin market cycles. This declaration comes roughly 18 months after Bitcoin's all-time high near $108,000 in late 2024, during which the asset corrected over 25% at its lows.

Key Details from Galaxy's Analysis

Galaxy Research highlights several data-driven indicators:

Market Structure Improvements: Bitcoin's hash rate remains near all-time highs, signaling robust network security and miner capitulation has largely passed. Realized price metrics show that the average cost basis for holders is stabilizing around $65,000–$70,000, creating a strong support floor.
Institutional Adoption Trends: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative inflows exceeding $40 billion since their 2024 launch, according to SoSoValue data. Corporate treasuries, including MicroStrategy's continued accumulation (now holding over 250,000 BTC), underscore growing mainstream integration.
Historical Cycle Patterns: Bitcoin's four-year halving cycles have historically seen bear markets bottom 12–18 months post-halving. The April 2024 halving aligns with the current period as a transition into the next bull phase, similar to patterns observed in 2016 and 2020.

The firm emphasizes that despite short-term headwinds—like potential regulatory scrutiny post-midterms and Fed policy—the risk-reward ratio strongly favors accumulation. Galaxy suggests a potential retest of $100,000 by mid-2025 as a base case.

Implications for Bitcoin and the Broader Crypto Market

This bullish pivot from a respected institutional voice carries weight. For Bitcoin, it signals a shift from defensive consolidation to offensive growth, potentially catalyzing renewed retail and institutional inflows. If validated, it could push BTC dominance higher from its current ~55% level, pressuring altcoins in the near term.

In the broader crypto market, the thesis supports a recovery narrative. Ethereum, Solana, and layer-2 solutions could benefit from a rising Bitcoin tide, with total crypto market capitalization potentially reclaiming $3 trillion. However, risks remain: correlation with traditional risk assets like Nasdaq (currently ~0.6) means equity market downturns could still drag crypto lower.

Critics note that while historical cycles provide context, each cycle features unique variables—such as this era's ETF-driven liquidity and nation-state adoption (e.g., potential U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves under pro-crypto policymakers).

Historical Context

Bitcoin has endured multiple bear markets: an 85% drawdown in 2018, a 75% correction in 2022 following the Terra-Luna collapse and FTX bankruptcy. In each case, accumulation phases at perceived capitulation points preceded parabolic rallies. Galaxy's call echoes analyst views from firms like Standard Chartered and Bernstein, who project BTC prices of $150,000–$200,000 by 2025–2026 based on similar cycle analysis.

Forward-Looking Implications

If Galaxy's assessment holds, investors may witness Bitcoin transitioning into a sustained bullish phase characterized by higher lows and gradual upward momentum. Strategic implications include dollar-cost averaging at current levels, portfolio rebalancing toward BTC over altcoins, and monitoring on-chain metrics like exchange outflows.

However, prudent risk management is essential. Macro events—such as persistent inflation above 2.5%, geopolitical tensions, or delayed ETF approvals in Europe—could extend volatility. Ultimately, Galaxy's report serves as a timely reminder: in Bitcoin's cyclical nature, perceived bear market exhaustion often marks the genesis of the next major uptrend.

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