Bitcoin enters ‘Rektember’ as rate-hike risk combines with seasonality to threaten rally

Bitcoin faces heightened downside risk in September as persistent rate-hike fears and historically weak seasonality ("Rektember") threaten the recent rally. Markets are pricing a higher probability of Fed tightening amid sticky inflation signs, which tends to boost yields and weigh on risk assets including Bitcoin. The convergence of macro tightening risk and seasonal selling increases the likelihood of volatility and drawdowns rather than a continued upside breakout. Traders should expect tighter correlations with equities and rates and manage leverage and positioning accordingly.