Betting Odds of Government Shutdown 2026 Crashes to 4% on Kalshi

Kalshi’s prediction market shows the probability of a 2026 U.S. government shutdown has fallen to about 4%. Market participants are thus pricing out meaningful near-term U.S. political tail risk. For Bitcoin, reduced political uncertainty lowers one class of safe‑haven demand and may dampen volatility and short‑term upside tied to risk-off flows, though broader macro and regulatory drivers will continue to dominate price direction.